Random Thoughts

I think we are probably at peak oil. On the back of this, I can only assume that alternative energies are going to take off once again. This will be the second boom in alternative energies in the last five years. I believe that controls for electric motors might be a segment to look at. Of course, the obvious is battery technologies. Storing energy in large batteries may be an opportunity to harness lumpy energy sources such as wind and solar.

With population growth, we are certainly going to run out of food. We are also going to run out of basic materials. I believe that this will fuel inflation for the long-term. However, this inflation is different than the typical wage price spiral. As a result, it will equate to a lower standard of living. The reason for this is that it is not a monetary mechanism, but it is a function of simple lack of supply which causes basic materials and food to be spread over more and more people. That’s how you end up with a smaller chunk of a finite pie.

I believe that technology is where we will look for productivity gains. Of course, by definition this is what technology is. However, unique ways to organize, manage and display information will help workers become more productive. I believe that companies like ARM technologies will benefit the most, which as these simple designs will end up powering data centers. It is this simplicity across all segments that will win out. Simple and usable is a theme to look for.