what a mess...

It's time to sit back relax and watch this market gyrate. There is absolutely nothing to do here except dig around and find extraordinary values and wait. Today was an extraordinary day in the market on the upside, following many extraordinary days on the downside. There is absolutely no way the broader indices should go up 10% on a single day. This simply means that money is sloshing around the system and finding a home in the very short term. It absolutely has nothing to do with fundamentals, which makes investing right now almost an oxymoron.

In my opinion, things will continue to be bad for the long-term. And by bad what I mean is relatively flat as valuations have reached a critical point where money tends flow in. The only way that I see valuations contracting further, is if inflation spirals out of control resulting in a higher discount rate and thus lower multiples. How do we get back to a bull market? The only way that I think we get back to a bull market is to fully deleverage the system, discount real estate prices to their true economic value and begin to grow again on the back of higher productivity.