Tom, thanks for the message. I guess I really do not have much to add to this. I have opinions, but by definition opinions do not amount to much. I have one vote, and I’ll use it, but if I really felt inspired to change people, I suppose that I’d get into action and become an organizer. You know the saying, “Opinions are like…” Or “Actions speak louder than words”. I’ll readily admit that I’m doing nothing facilitate change, so I give my own banter almost no credit.
I’m pretty humble when it comes to my ability to predict what will happen and why. I suppose that it is because in my short history tracking and trying to predict this stuff, it almost always turns out to be the case that things are far different from what I originally envision. In 1989 (senior in high school) I wanted to move to a different country because I felt we were all doomed as the Japanese were eating our lunch and that I would have to feed on table scraps when I entered the workforce. That turned out to be about as far from reality I could have been – who wants to make cars anyway? It is a really shitty business.
In terms of Obama I guess, I would agree, that he wants to be the greatest leader of all-time and create a legacy for himself. This could scare me and maybe should scare me, but it does not. I think that one reason for this is the simple process of becoming The President of the United States, you really have to believe your own hype and I highly doubt that any of his predecessors thought differently. My very general opinion on him is that he is a politician that does not have very strong beliefs. I think he has gotten to where he is now by being a populist while influencing some of his audience (into the populist camp) through highly effective oration. In other words, promising the world to the largest constituencies, which works well as a senator but the jury is out if it works as a president, my guess is that it will not work. There are too many moving parts, you have to have beliefs and you have to be able to delegate, both of which he has not demonstrated to date. I think that what he is doing now is just politicking and it is certainly not what legacies are made of. I really think that he is struggling under the weight given the heterogeneity of the worldwide constituency and realizing that playing the middle ground may set him up for failure, he just doesn’t know how else to play it and it is confusing to him that he cannot please everyone. On one hand he is promising stuff (Copenhagen) that is likely not to be ratified by Congress (US Political System at work), having him lose face in front of his global peers. And on the other hand he is creating unsustainable programs at home in a precarious time in order to satisfy his constituents, which I think is all that he knows how to do. Everyone knew going in that he lacked foreign policy experience, well it is showing now. The side-effect for me, I have to say is pretty positive. I prefer be able to travel around the world without being hated, even if that is at the expense of an inept president – hard for others to understand for sure. He is in a tough spot right now. Will he get re-elected? I have no idea, it pretty much depends on the economy in 2011 as that email that you sent to me mentions and from where I sit, predicting the economy has always been impossible, so I have no idea.
My opinion on what happens from here is based on my belief that the political system in the United States is second-to-none and as such, baring a rewriting of the constitution, it will continue to work as well as any in the world. What is certainly true is that the US is in an era of unsustainable spending and this will likely result some social change. It is my opinion that throughout history, one thing is for certain, change is inevitable and real change, while it can happen abruptly (the fall of the Soviet Union) can also happen slowly, I hope the later occurs here.
Abrupt change could happen when Medicare and Social Security officially break, which it seems is likely to happen sooner rather than later. In the near term I’d expect that change on the spending front when the cost of borrowing rises and the system begins to show cracks under the burden of the higher cost of refinancing. If this is the case, the US will no longer be able to borrow to spend more (including borrowing against Medicare & Social Security). Inflation could be the way out and this is a problem. It will be tough for many, but it will provide opportunities for others (borrow now!). Some wealth redistribution will likely happen, but on the whole, I think those who have money will hang on to most of it. The people that will likely suffer (as % of income) the most will be people like me. However, what do people like me do? Look for loop holes in the tax code and given the tax code is set up to not be fair, we'll find them. Policing such a complex instrument is almost impossible so the tax revenues will fall (yes , I believe there to be some truth to the Laffer curve). When tax revenues fall, there will have to be cuts to services, thus pissing off the constituencies who put the president in place. In the end, to summarize, it is my opinion that free markets, transparency and fair rules prevail, but change is inevitable and barring some great new innovation (the Internet), it will result in some strife. But what gives me confidence is that the US has a culture that punishes corruption (many cultures embrace it) and it is backed by a superior political system (no system is perfect). Who knows, maybe Obama is better than I give him credit for being and that will be the surprise! Yes, I’m a proud American, but my opinions are just that, opinions. I don’t put any more or less weight in them versus those of others and as such is the reason that I tend to not listen to those of others. I’ll vote, I’ll work, but I don’t find happiness in trying to change opinions of others, so I refrain from that as much as possible.
P.S. I wouldn't read this if someone sent it to me!
This is the email below:
MIKE;
THIS GUY IS RESPECTED HIGHLY IN THE JOURNALISTIC WORLD. HIS COMMENT'S TOUCH ON WHAT WE WERE TALKING ABOUT LAST NIGHT. SOME OF THI8S STUFF IS PRETTY IMPORTANT IN RELATION TO WHAT YOU DO. APPRECIATE YOUR COMMENTS?
Dr. Charles Krauthammer
Dr. Krauthammer is on Fox News. He is an M.D. and a lawyer and is paralyzed from the neck down. A friend went to hear Charles Krauthammer. He listened with 25 others in a closed room. What he says here, is NOT 2nd-hand but 1st. The ramifications are staggering for us, our children and their children.
Last Monday was a profound evening; Dr. Charles Krauthammer spoke to the Center for the American Experiment. He is a brilliant intellectual, seasoned & articulate. He is forthright and careful in his analysis, and never resorts to emotions or personal insults. He is NOT a fear monger nor an extremist in his comments and views . He is a fiscal conservative, and has received a Pulitzer Prize for writing. He is a frequent contributor to Fox News and writes weekly for the Washington Post.
The entire room was held spellbound during his talk.
I have summarized his comments, as we are living in uncharted waters economically and internationally. Even 2 Dems at my table agreed with everything he said! If you feel like forwarding this to those who are open minded and have not drunk the Kool-Aid, feel free.
Summary of his comments:
1. Mr. Obama is a very intellectual, charming individual. He is not to be underestimated. He is a cool customer who doesn't show his emotions. It's very hard to know what's behind the mask. The taking down of the Clinton dynasty was an amazing accomplishment. The Clintons still do not understand what hit them.
Obama was in the perfect place at the perfect time.
2. Obama has political skills comparable to Reagan and Clinton . He has a way of making you think he's on your side, agreeing with your position, while doing the opposite. Pay no attention to what he SAYS; rather, watch what he DOES!
3. Obama has a ruthless quest for power. He did not come to Washington to make something out of himself, but rather to change everything, including dismantling capitalism. He can't be straightforward on his ambitions, as the public would not go along. He has a heavy hand, and wants to level the playing field with income redistribution and punishment to the achievers of society. He would like to model the USA to Great Britain or Canada .
4. His three main goals are to control ENERGY, PUBLIC EDUCATION, and NATIONAL HEALTHCARE by the Federal government. He doesn't care about the auto or financial services industries, but got them as an early bonus. The cap and trade will add costs to everything and stifle growth. Paying for FREE college education is his goal. Most scary is his healthcare program, because if you make it FREE and add 46,000,000 people to a Medicare-type single-payer system, the costs will go through the roof. The only way to control costs is with massive RATIONING of services, like in Canada . God forbid!
5. He has surrounded himself with mostly far-left academic types. No one around him has ever even run a candy store. But they are going to try and run the auto, financial, banking and other industries. This obviously can't work in the long run. Obama is not a socialist; rather he's a far-left secular progressive bent on nothing short of revolution. He ran as a moderate, but will govern from the hard left. Again, watch what he does, not what he says.
6. Obama doesn't really see himself as President of the United States, but more as a ruler over the world. He sees himself above it all, trying to orchestrate & coordinate various countries and their agendas. He sees moral equivalency in all cultures. His apology tour in Germany and England was a prime example of how he sees America , as an imperialist nation that has been arrogant, rather than a great noble nation that has at times made errors. This is the first President ever who has chastised our allies and appeased our enemies!
7. He is now handing out goodies. He hopes that the bill (and pain) will not come due until after he is reelected in 2012. He would like to blame all problems on Bush from the past, and hopefully his successor in the future. He has a huge ego, and Dr. Krauthammer believes he is a narcissist.
8. Republicans are in the wilderness for a while, but will emerge strong. Republicans are pining for another Reagan, but there will never be another like him. Krauthammer believes Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty & Bobby Jindahl (except for his terrible speech in February) are the future of the party. Newt Gingrich is brilliant, but has baggage. Sarah Palin is sincere and intelligent, but needs to really be seriously boning up on facts and info if she is to be a serious candidate in the future. We need to return to the party of lower taxes, smaller government, personal responsibility, strong national defense, and state's rights.
9. The current level of spending is irresponsible and outrageous. We are spending trillions that we don't have. This could lead to hyperinflation, depression or worse. No country has ever spent themselves into prosperity. The media is giving Obama, Reid and Pelosi a pass because they love their agenda. But eventually the bill will come due and people will realize the huge bailouts didn't work, nor will the stimulus package.These were trillion-dollar payoffs to Obama's allies, unions and the Congress to placate the left, so he can get support for #4 above.
10. The election was over in mid-September when Lehman brothers failed, fear and panic swept in, we had an unpopular President, and the war was grinding on indefinitely without a clear outcome. The people are in pain, and the mantra of change caused people to act emotionally. Any Dem would have won this election; it was surprising it was as close as it was.
11. In 2012, if the unemployment rate is over 10%, Republicans will be swept back into power. If it's under 8%, the Dems continue to roll. If it's between 8-10%, it will be a dogfight. It will all be about the economy. I hope this gets you really thinking about what's happening in Washington and Congress. There is a left-wing revolution going on, according to Krauthammer, and he encourages us to keep the faith and join the loyal resistance. The work will be hard, but we're right on most issues and can reclaim our country, before it's far too late.
Do yourself a long term favor, send this to all who will listen to an intelligent assessment of the big picture. All our futures and children's futures depend on our good understanding of what is really going on in DC, and our action pursuant to that understanding!! It really IS up to each of us to take individual action!! Start with educating your friends and neighbors!!!
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