Thursday, April 2, 2009

When will this volatility end?

My view on this market is that it is clearly unhealthy. In my opinion, if you have wide swings in prices, it means that prices have not found equilibrium yet. So why is this happening? Well, I guess one of the reasons why it could be happening is that we continue to deleverage. In other words as people pay back their borrowings (short cover), you will have very significant moves in the market. This is just one form of leverage. Furthermore, when everybody is afraid, then fear takes on two forms. One form is the fear of missing a big rally or a bottom (which I believe is going on now) and two fear of more losses in the market. The results of this uncertainty is clearly price volatility in my opinion.

In terms of the financial system it is very clear to me that absolutely nobody knows what is going to happen and that banks in general are insolvent, if we were to use current prices to unwind all of their assets. So what I mean by this is if you were to offset and pay back all of their borrowings and call-in all of their lendings at once there would be zero equity value left. This is a problem. Until we have more transparency in the financial system, it will be impossible for outside investors to fund the balance sheets of these financial institutions. I believe that this is what happened in Japan to a large degree. There simply was not transparency so the recapitalization of their financial system took much longer than it should have, resulting in the "lost decade".

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